I think the 4th one is the best. I do like color, but for me, the colors of the third one don't really speak to me. Too sad I think.
The 4th one I think is actually simplistic really. Even without the simplistic design. That is actually fairly easy to produce, and if we are talking back in the old days, even then. The colors are more common, and let's not forget in the game the Skyrim logo is on the Empire's flag. The Skyrim logo I find to be really hard to reproduce. They even had red! Not a common color because of the dye.
The dragon's head also makes it fairly obvious that it is dragon related so you don't have to be able to read runes or the like to know what it goes with.
The axe, I think, the artist was going for a Skyrim feel, since the nords use lots of axes.
But yes. Definitely the 4th one.